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DTSTART;TZID=UTC:20260804T140000
DTEND;TZID=UTC:20260804T170000
DTSTAMP:20260804T045041Z
CREATED:20260804T044856Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260804T045041Z
UID:12589-1785852000-1785862800@bams.mak.ac.ug
SUMMARY:PhD Public Defense for Mr.Isabirye Swaliki Kisige
DESCRIPTION:INVITATION: \nThe Dean\, School of Economics under the College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS)\, cordially invites you to the PhD Public Defense of the following candidate: \nName of the Candidate: Mr. Isabirye Swaliki Kisige \nTitle of Thesis: \nExternal debt\, public and private investment\, and economic growth in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries in Sub Saharan Africa \nDate: Tuesday 4th August 2026. \nTime: 2:00pm – 5:00pm \nVenue: \nConference Room\, College of Business and Management Sciences\n(CoBAMS)\, Makerere University \nABSTRACT \nThis study examined how external public debt affects public investment\,\nprivate investment\, and economic growth in Highly Indebted Poor\nCountries within Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2000 to 2024. The\nanalysis was guided by three objectives: to identify the determinants of\npublic investment with emphasis on external debt; to assess the effect\nof public investment on private investment and determine whether the\nrelationship is linear or nonlinear; and to examine the direct and\nindirect effects of external public debt on economic growth. \nTo address these objectives\, the study employed two complementary\neconometric approaches. The first objective was estimated using the\ntwo-step System Generalized Method of Moments estimator to account for\nendogeneity and dynamic fiscal behavior. The second and third objectives\nwere analyzed using the Pooled Mean Group estimator under the\nAutoregressive Distributed Lag framework\, given the evidence of long-run\nrelationships among the variables. \nThe results showed that public investment is influenced by its previous\nlevels\, meaning that once countries commit to infrastructure programmes\,\nthey tend to continue investing over time due to ongoing project and\npolicy commitments. Public investment was also shaped by external public\ndebt\, economic growth\, domestic revenue mobilization\, and political\nstability. External public debt exhibited a nonlinear effect: moderate\nborrowing supported public investment\, but once debt exceeded\napproximately 56 percent of GDP\, additional borrowing reduced the\ncapacity to finance new capital projects. \nPublic investment was found to stimulate private investment in the long\nrun\, confirming a complementary relationship. However\, this effect\nweakens once public investment surpasses an estimated threshold of about\n16 percent of GDP\, particularly where fiscal pressures are pronounced.\nFurthermore\, external public debt contributed positively to economic\ngrowth at low to moderate levels but demonstrated an inverted U-shaped\nrelationship at higher levels\, with the turning point occurring around\n23 to 24 percent of GDP. The results also revealed that debt contributes\nto growth only when it is directed toward productive investment rather\nthan consumption or debt servicing. \nOverall\, the findings underscore that public investment\, private\ninvestment\, and economic growth in HIPCs can benefit from external\nborrowing when debt levels remain within economically sustainable bounds\nand when borrowed resources are allocated to productive capital\nformation. The study recommends that governments in Sub-Saharan African\nHIPCs maintain public investment within the range of 10-12 percent of\nGDP\, where the crowding-in effect on private investment is strongest\,\nand avoid scaling investment beyond absorptive capacity. External public\ndebt should be kept below approximately 55 percent of GDP to preserve\nits supportive role in private investment\, and below 23-24 percent of\nGDP to avoid debt overhang effects on economic growth. Strengthening\npublic investment efficiency\, improving debt management frameworks\,\nexpanding domestic revenue mobilization\, and deepening domestic credit\nmarkets are therefore essential to ensure that external borrowing\ntranslates into productive capital formation and sustainable long-term\ndevelopment. \nSupervisors: \nDr. John Mutenyo\nDr. John Bosco Oryema \nYour presence and participation will be highly appreciated as we support the student in this important academic milestone.
URL:https://bams.mak.ac.ug/event/phd-public-defense-by-mr-isabirye-swaliki-kisige/
LOCATION:Conference Hall\, Block B\, CoBAMS\, Conference Room\, Block B\, CoBAMS\, Kampala\, Uganda
CATEGORIES:PhD Defense
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://bams.mak.ac.ug/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/kisige.jpg
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